Tariff Outlook

National Retail Sector Shows Resilience,
With Select Metros Outperforming 

Property type fundamentals remain steady. A handful of macroeconomic headwinds counter several retail-oriented tailwinds, resulting in a balanced 2026 outlook. 

• Real retail sales posted modest but positive gains last year
• Further slackening in job creation may soften household formation in 2026, moderating demand for select retail categories. 
• Additionally, the impact of tariffs continues to affect retailers, particularly small businesses.
• Retail space demand remains steady, supported by limited new construction — predominately single-tenant development — sustaining national vacancy near 5.0 percent, and keeping rent growth modest in the low-1.0 percent range.
• Recent cap rate recalibration and a recent decline in borrowing costs — driven by tighter lender spreads — helped support the pickup in transaction velocity.

Florida markets post strong retail performance. Tight vacancy, accelerating rent growth, and limited new supply underpin Florida's position among the nation's top performers.

• Miami-Dade ended 2026 with vacancy near 3.0 percent, well below the national level, supported by decelerating inventory expansion, which is projected at just 0.2 percent in 2026.
• Fort Lauderdale posted strengthening rent momentum last year and is forecast to achieve 2.8 percent asking rent growth in 2026 as retail availability continues to decline
• West Palm Beach, similar to Miami and Fort Lauderdale, will likely see minimal new retail development, placing modest downward pressure on vacancy and supporting rent gains. 
• Orlando and Tampa should maintain tight conditions for 2026, with projected vacancies of 4.4 percent and 4.1 percent with rent growth of 1.0 percent and 2.0 percent respectively

Carolina metros lead the 2026 national outlook. Strong demographic and employment expansion, paired with constrained supply, sustain tight fundamentals entering 2026.

• Charleston continues to outperform, supported by outsized job creation and population growth in recent years. 
• The metro is forecast to maintain a 3.3 percent vacancy rate in 2026, anchoring its projected rent growth of 3.1 percent.
•  Raleigh-Durham benefits from a diverse economic base that has driven robust employment and population gains alongside a modest construction pipeline relative to its historical mean.
• The market closed 2025 with 2.8 percent vacancy and 4.5 percent rent growth, with 2026 metrics estimated at 3.0 percent vacancy and a year-over-year rent gain of 1.3 percent. 
• Charlotte's strong labor market and sustained population inflows continue to support its elevated retail performance.
•  At the same time, retail development has remained constrained, averaging just 0.6 percent inventory growth annually since 2019, contributing to its 3.6 percent vacancy rate and 4.3 percent rent growth in 2025.
• Vacancy in Charlotte is projected to decline by 10 basis points in 2026 to 3.5 percent as rent growth accelerates to a market-leading 4.7 percent by year's end.

*Forecast
Sources: Marcus & Millichap Research Services; Bureau of Labor Statistics; Costar, Inc.; RealPage,
Inc.; U.S. Census Bureau