Market Report
Tampa-St. Petersburg Retail Market Report
3Q 2026
Leasing and Construction Activity Changing
as Demographic Trends Shift
Wage growth holds as in-migration slows. Tampa has been among the 10 fastest-growing major metros by household income growth for the past four years, supporting consumer spending. At the same time, net migration has slowed markedly from the 2015-2019 annual average of 50,000 new residents per year to a projected increase of roughly 10,000 net arrivals in 2026. Developers have responded by pulling back construction, with roughly 730,000 square feet underway in early July, the lowest level since late 2023. Leasing activity has also cooled, as the volume of space committed reached its lowest quarterly level since 2015 in the second quarter.
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