Tampa-St. Petersburg Retail Market Report

Demand trends diverge. After several years of outsized demographic momentum, conditions are normalizing in Tampa. Population growth will remain above the national average in 2026, but continues to decelerate. This slowdown has already contributed to the metro recording its weakest year-long stretch of net absorption last year since at least 2007. Meanwhile, performance across tenancy types remains uneven. Persistent relinquishments across neighborhood, community, and strip centers may continue to pressure multi-tenant vacancy. Single-tenant spaces remained among the 10 least vacant markets nationally in late 2025, though performance remains bifurcated by size. Sub-10,000-square-foot properties entered 2026 with sustained positive absorption momentum. In contrast, vacancy among single-tenant spaces exceeding 10,000 square feet rose materially last year. Backfilling largely by fitness and discount retailers, however, has kept the segment’s average months-to-lease near historic lows.