Market Report
Tampa-St. Petersburg Multifamily Market Report
1Q 2026
Moderating Population and Supply Growth
Coincide With Acceleration in Private Purchases
Outlook hinges on shifting market dynamics. In the coming year, Tampa’s apartment market will enter a rebalancing phase as new supply and demand patterns take shape. On the demand side, select pockets, including Hernando and Pasco counties, continue to attract an outsize share of new residents. However, the broader slowdown in Sun Belt in-migration is evident in the metro, which is projected to post its slowest annual population growth since 2011. This cooling has already contributed to sharply reduced net absorption figures in the second half of 2025, following six consecutive quarters above 2,000 units. On the supply side, slowing deliveries should bring relief to areas that faced heavy construction in recent years, including West Pasco County-Hernando, the Peninsula, and South St. Petersburg. Conversely, submarkets such as Central Tampa and New Tampa-East Pasco County will continue to see elevated completions, likely pushing local vacancy rates higher through 2026. In both cases, however, no deliveries are currently scheduled for 2027, offering a more favorable longer-term outlook.
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