Ottawa Multifamily Investment Forecast

Operations to soften but remain healthy. The interplay of several opposing forces shapes Ottawa’s multifamily outlook for 2026. As part of Budget 2025, the federal government will shed nearly 30,000 jobs over the next two years, most of which will be concentrated in the capital region. Even so, ongoing expansion in the tech sector should help partially offset the drag from public-sector downsizing, supporting job growth in hubs like Kanata, where both established firms and new entrants continue to scale. Population growth is also expected to slow as fewer temporary residents arrive. Still, continued inflows from other provinces and higher-cost cities within Ontario will help backstop rental demand despite overall growth moderating. Taken together, these trends point to softer apartment demand through 2026, though the pullback is expected to be manageable given the city’s still-positive population inflows and ongoing tech-sector support. On the supply side, completions are set to tick slightly higher following last year’s pullback, supported by a mild increase in construction starts from their 2023 lows. As a result, vacancy is expected to rise only modestly, with limited new supply providing a stabilizing backstop.