New York Retail Market Report
2023 Investment Forecast
Recovering Leisure Travel Facilitates Demand Backstop;
Leasing Activity Shines Spotlight on Outer Boroughs
Tourism recovery provides note of optimism amid vacancy uptick. Entering 2023, consumer activity in Manhattan was still impacted by the after-effects of the health crisis. With projections showing just over 50 percent of workers returned in the office by mid-January, low attendance is the largest hurdle to clear on the path to a full recovery, and will be a significant contributing factor driving rising availability this year. On a brighter note, Metro-North Railroad and Long Island Rail Road usage has improved, with weekend ridership consistently surpassing the pre-pandemic level by the end of last year. Contemporary tourism figures from NYC & Company stand at 85 percent of 2019 counts. This lines up with other comparable visitation metrics forecasting a full domestic tourism recovery before the end of this year. Long-term outlooks in the more residential outer boroughs are also positive, with leasing activity reaching an all-time high outside of Manhattan during last year’s fourth quarter. The city’s employment base is expected to observe further growth in 2023, stimulating consumer activity in these locales.