Miami Retail Market Report

Attractive fundamentals inhibited by national conditions. The pattern of domestic in-migration that has benefited markets in the southeastern United States in recent years is projected to decelerate this year. Tourism spending is also declining, coinciding with signs of labor market softness, affecting Miami-Dade county especially. This backsliding still leaves the metro’s vacancy rate below its post-2006 average of 3.9 percent. Only six major markets will hold lower measures at year-end. The outlook also carries some greenshoots. A slowing pace of deliveries in 2025 may dwindle even further next year if interest rates and materials costs remain elevated, potentially allowing the vacancy rate to compress.