Edmonton Retail Investment Forecast

Vacancy rate set to rise modestly in 2026. Retail space demand in Edmonton moderated through 2025 as trade disruptions weighed on business confidence, prompting many retailers to pause or scale back expansion plans. Entering 2026, leasing activity is expected to remain soft even as consumer spending holds relatively firm, supported by steady wage growth and easing inflation. Retailers, however, are likely to stay cautious for several reasons. Lingering trade uncertainties continue to cloud import costs and supply chain stability, discouraging new leasing commitments. At the same time, population growth — while still positive — is slowing from the post-pandemic surge, tempering demand in emerging suburban nodes where new retail projects have been concentrated. In the downtown core, persistently high office vacancy is limiting daytime foot traffic and weighing on retailer confidence, further restraining expansion activity. As a result, the metro’s overall retail vacancy rate is projected to edge higher in 2026. Even so, completions are expected to fall notably as the construction pipeline continues to taper, and this moderation in new supply should help cap further increases in vacancy rates.