Market Report
Calgary Retail Market Report
2026 Investment Forecast
Leasing to Improve as Lower Rates
and Policy Support Lift Consumer Activity
Space demand on a recovery path. Calgary’s retail sector weathered a challenging 2025, as trade tensions and weaker consumer confidence weighed on space demand early in the year. Net absorption turned sharply negative in the first half before rebounding in the second, reflecting renewed leasing momentum across several categories towards year-end. This recovery is expected to carry into 2026, supported by lower borrowing costs that will stimulate household spending and by population growth that continues to outperform most major Canadian markets. Another notable demand driver has emerged in the childcare segment, where operators such as Active Start Childcare have been expanding footprints under Alberta’s new Affordability Grant for Child Care Programs, part of the province’s $10-a-day initiative. This incentive has increased leasing activity for childcare and family-service tenants, particularly in neighbourhood and community retail centres. Still, elevated global uncertainty and renewed trade friction pose downside risks. A material drop in oil prices could dampen confidence and discretionary spending, potentially moderating the pace of Calgary’s retail sector recovery.
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