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Market Report

Baltimore Retail Market Report

2024 Investment Forecast

New Supply Emerges as an Answer to Suburban
Demand, but Additions are Ill-Timed with Out-Migration

Construction spikes in outlying suburbs. Pressure from new supply on retail property metrics will pick up in the coming months, as Baltimore shifts from a near record-low completion total last year to a half-decade high in 2024. Limited stock growth helped vacancy land at a post-pandemic low of 5.9 percent in 2023, signaling to developers a growing need for updated and well-positioned spaces from tenants. Southern Anne Arundel’s double-digit asking rent growth last year was likely a product of this shortage, motivating builders to start on the area’s largest pipeline since 2012, at 122,000 square feet. Similarly, another 40 percent of new supply is slated for Harford and Carroll counties, where local inventories grew less than 1.2 percent over the last half-decade, facilitating far-below average vacancies to close out 2023. While tenant demand is expected to slow in 2024 as Baltimore registers a fourth straight year of net out-migration, the strategic positioning of new supply should minimize the adjustment in overall vacancy, sustaining operators’ abilities to modestly push asking rents in the near-term. 
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