Marcus & Millichap

Baltimore Retail Investment Forecast

Outlook 2019

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Strong Demand Further Limits Availability Despite Elevated Construction

Job growth drawing new retail tenants, sustaining minimal vacancy. Demographic factors continue to benefit the local economy. A fifth of all Baltimore jobs are in educational and health services, a segment that will become increasingly important as the baby boomer generation ages and more young people attend college. Positive job creation improves the underlying demand for retailers in the metro, emphasized by the growing number of tenants moving into the area the past few years. More operators locating in the market in 2019 will keep availability at a historically low level, even as the construction pipeline expands. Completions for this year are largely located outside the core, led by a pair of big-box stores in Owings Mills and two shopping centers in southeast Baltimore City. These buildings are already fully pre-leased, supporting a rise in asking rents at existing facilities. Monthly rates will appreciate at a pace consistent with the previous five-year annual average following a growth surge in 2018.

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