Marcus & Millichap

National Seniors Housing Research Report

First Half 2019

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Operators Watching Impact of Reimbursement Changes and Construction Slowdown As Demographics and Yields Draw Investors to Seniors Housing

Beyond all else, aging population the cornerstone of seniors housing outlook. Over the next five years, the U.S. population age 75 and older is expected to increase by 21 percent, adding 4.7 million seniors to the prospective pool of seniors housing residents. This is nearly double the 2.6 million 75-plus year-old seniors added over the last five years. This dramatic demographic expansion, together with the increased medical services needs of the aging population, will support rising demand for all forms of seniors housing. The country as a whole continues to grapple with the implications of this transformation, particularly as rising healthcare costs spark heated discussions on how healthcare should be managed and paid for. Medicare for All, a new incarnation of nationalized healthcare, has again entered the political dialogue, with the potential to substantively change medical services and the seniors housing markets. Based on current projections, healthcare spending will surpass 19 percent of GDP in five years and climb past the 20 percent mark in 2026, the year the U.S. 75-plus population is expected to break the 30 million threshold. Naturally, increased efficiency and integration of technology will be a significant factor for the seniors housing industry, particularly as Medicare Advantage has finalized new policies allowing the increased use of telehealth, which will allow doctors to engage patients using telecommunication and digital communication systems. Advancements in telehealth capabilities at seniors housing facilities have the potential to dramatically impact how care services are delivered to residents.

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