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Market Report

Tampa-St. Petersburg Retail Market Report

2023 Investment Forecast

Tenacious Population Growth and Tourism Underpin Retail Spending;
Chains Expanding Outside the Core

Suburban expansions increasingly necessary. Tampa Bay’s retail spending is supported by an established tourism cornerstone and the second-largest net in-migration projection among major Florida markets this year. To keep pace with robust tenant demand fueled by these dynamics, developers are slated to deliver a four-year high volume of space during 2023. Most of the pipeline is located in outlying areas, such as Pasco County and Sarasota-Bradenton. Retailers seeking to enter the market are gravitating to these areas, due to both limited availability in the urban core and notable suburbanization. Companies wishing to expand into Central Tampa this year should face more competition for available space amid locally low vacancy and a lack of new construction. As a result, many of the chains moving into the metro — such as Raising Cane’s, Fatburger and Dave’s Hot Chicken — are choosing locales like Pinellas, North Hillsborough, Pasco County and Sarasota-Bradenton. Nonetheless, net absorption in 2023 will fall short of the exceptional tallies from recent years as the economy softens, resulting in a slight vacancy uptick.
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