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Market Report

Nashville Retail Market Report

2023 Investment Forecast

Tight Retail Availability Omnipresent Across Nashville;
Investors Weigh Debt Costs Against Strong Appreciation

Retail metrics distinguishable on a national stage. Young professionals continue to move in from other parts of the country for quality-of-life factors, while an outward expanding resident base produces new suburban household clusters. These trends support the need for additional shopping options, which is being met by ongoing leasing activity near residential hubs. While a broad-based economic softening will coax many retailers to be less aggressive with their expansion plans, holding net absorption to the lowest tally in three years, the outlook remains strong. Metro vacancy will end 2023 tied for the third tightest among major U.S. markets, while the pace of rent growth ranks in the top 10. Low retail availability is extensive throughout the metro. Last year, 13 of Nashville’s 16 largest submarkets by inventory had a vacancy rate below 3 percent. More than half of these areas boasted a sub-2 percent recording. The primary exception to the marketwide strength is the Southeast Corridor, where availability rested above 9 percent last year. This submarket also has the largest construction pipeline in the metro, entering 2023 at roughly 350,000 square feet, including the biggest individual project. The Tanger Outlets in Antioch, an open-air center, plans to host about 70 different retailers after opening.
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