The Euro Is Falling. What Does That Mean for US CRE Investment?

The Euro has been losing major ground against the dollar this year — but one industry expert says that could translate into outsized investment in US commercial real estate assets by European sources.

The war in Ukraine has both directly and indirectly impacted the Euro’s value: “to put it simply, having a war in the neighborhood is destabilizing,” says Marcus & Millichap’s John Chang. That alone “put some shade” on the European economic outlook, compounded by an impending energy crisis on the Continent. Russian oil exports to Europe are down by 35% and their natural gas deliveries have also fallen by 70%.

“Many also fear that the energy shortage will cause gas prices to surge, in turn compounding the already significant inflation headwinds Europe faces,” Chang says. Eurozone inflation has surpassed the US, with CPI growth climbing above 9% — and at the same time, the European Central Bank has been “slow to respond” with interest rate increases, Chang says, with the current overnight rate clocking in at 0.75%.