Office Will Remain CRE's 'Wildcard' As Economy Recovers

The overall outlook for CRE investment remains strong and is getting stronger for 2021, though office will remain the “wildcard” as companies and workers continue to grapple with how, where, and when to return to physical office space, according to a new analysis by Marcus & Millichap senior vice president John Chang.

“In general, the outlook is strengthening,” Chang said in a recent video. “We’re still not out of the woods yet. There are still many variables in play. But the accelerating pace of vaccine distribution is promising and it brings with it a strengthening commercial real estate outlook.”

He noted that economists keep raising their 2021 forecasts, with Morgan Stanley bumping their 2021 GDP forecast to 8.1%—potentially the strongest growth since 1950. Goldman Sachs also predicted 6.8% growth, and Chang noted that others are forecasting at least 5% growth this year as well.